Utah · NOAA station KSLC
Heating with a mini-split in Salt Lake City, UT
The short answer
In Salt Lake City, a median ENERGY STAR cold-climate mini-split heating a 24,000 BTU/h design load should cost about $969 a year: $49 more than natural gas (90% efficient), and 62% less than electric resistance. The 99% design temperature is 20°F, so capacity at 5°F rarely decides anything here.
The winter you are actually buying for
This is Salt Lake City's average year of hourly temperatures from 2015 through 2024 (87,635 readings at Salt Lake City International Airport, 100% of all hours). The dashed line is the 99% design temperature: only 1% of hours are colder.
What it costs, by fuel
Mini-split modeled as a median certified cold-climate unit sized to cover the load at 20°F. Seasonal efficiency in Salt Lake City's weather: COP 2.65. In 108 hours a year the load exceeds capacity and the estimate adds electric backup.
Three house sizes
| Design load | Heat pump | Gas | Oil | Propane | Resistance | Seasonal COP | Systems that cover it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12,000 BTU/h | $484 | $460 | $856 | $930 | $1,282 | 2.65 | 10,978 of 14,941 |
| 24,000 BTU/h | $969 | $920 | $1,713 | $1,859 | $2,564 | 2.65 | 5,599 of 14,941 |
| 36,000 BTU/h | $1,453 | $1,380 | $2,569 | $2,789 | $3,846 | 2.65 | 2,869 of 14,941 |
The last column counts ENERGY STAR cold-climate systems whose published 5°F and 47°F capacities, joined by a straight line, still reach the design load at Salt Lake City's 20°F. How sizing works.
Not a quote. Real bills depend on insulation, thermostat habits, installation and your own Manual J. Use this to decide whether a heat pump is worth pricing, then get two local quotes.
Questions people ask
Will a mini-split work in Salt Lake City in winter?
Yes, if it is a cold-climate model. Salt Lake City's 99% design temperature from 2015–2024 hourly data is 20°F, and the lowest hour recorded was -5°F. The median ENERGY STAR cold-climate unit keeps 88% of its 47°F heating capacity at 5°F. Hours per year at or below 5°F in Salt Lake City: 3.
Is a heat pump cheaper than natural gas in Salt Lake City?
At a 24,000 BTU/h design load, we estimate $969 a year with a median cold-climate mini-split versus $920 for natural gas at 90% efficiency, using 13.26¢/kWh electricity and 2024 Utah fuel prices. That is $49 more than natural gas.
How big a mini-split do I need in Salt Lake City?
Size to your home's heat loss at 20°F, not to square feet. For a 24,000 BTU/h load, a unit shaped like the median certified system needs about 25,954 BTU/h of 47°F capacity. 5,599 of the 14,941 certified systems cover that load at 20°F.