Heat pump cost-to-heat · data pulled 2026-10-26
What would a mini-split cost to heat your home?
The short answer
In 28 of 121 US cities we model, a median cold-climate mini-split is cheaper to run than the cheapest of gas, oil or propane (for a 24,000 BTU/h design load, 90% efficient furnace). Yearly cost ranges from $135 in Miami, FL to $2,719 in Fairbanks, AK. Put in your ZIP for your number.
Cost-to-heat calculator
Enter your ZIP. We look up the nearest of 122 weather stations, your state's electricity and fuel prices, and run a median ENERGY STAR cold-climate mini-split through your hours of weather.
Your estimate
Estimate only. Uses 2015–2024 hourly NOAA temperatures, ENERGY STAR median cold-climate unit shape (5°F capacity 88% of 47°F), 65°F balance point, no solar or internal gains, resistance backup where capacity falls short. Verify with a Manual J. Method.
Why this is different from a savings calculator
- Hours, not averages. We bin ten years of hourly NOAA temperatures into 5°F bands and cost each band separately, so a week at 0°F is not hidden by a mild March.
- Real capacity data. Capacity at 5°F and 47°F and COP at 5°F come from the 14,941 cold-climate systems on ENERGY STAR's list, not a brochure.
- No lead selling. No form asks for your phone number. See how we verify and how we are paid.
From warm to cold
- Fairbanks, AK-33°F design · $2,719/yr
- Burlington, VT0°F design · $1,664/yr
- Milwaukee, WI4°F design · $1,264/yr
- Portland, ME7°F design · $2,224/yr
- Detroit, MI9°F design · $1,388/yr
- Cleveland, OH10°F design · $1,172/yr
- Hartford, CT11°F design · $1,855/yr
- Boston, MA14°F design · $2,018/yr
- Philadelphia, PA19°F design · $1,191/yr
- Portland, OR30°F design · $1,130/yr
- All 20 cities →sortable table
- All states →EIA prices · August 2026
- Brands →capacity at 5°F, from EPA data
- Sizing →unit size by design temperature
Questions people ask
How do I know if a heat pump is cheaper than my furnace?
Compare cost per unit of delivered heat. Enter your ZIP in the calculator: it uses your area's hourly temperatures, your state's EIA electricity price and 2024 fuel prices, and a median ENERGY STAR cold-climate unit. In 28 of the 121 cities we model, a mini-split beats the cheapest of gas, oil and propane at 90% furnace efficiency for a 24,000 BTU/h load.
Do mini-splits work below zero?
Cold-climate models are tested at 5°F. The median certified unit delivers 88% of its 47°F capacity at 5°F with a COP of 2. Below 5°F capacity is not certified by ENERGY STAR; our model assumes it does not rise, and adds electric backup when the load exceeds capacity. The coldest design temperature among our cities is -33°F (Fairbanks, AK).
Where do your numbers come from?
NOAA hourly temperatures (2015–2024), EIA electricity and fuel prices, the EPA's ENERGY STAR certified mini-split list (14,941 cold-climate systems) and Census ZIP geography. Every source is linked and dated on the how-we-verify page.
Do you sell my ZIP code to installers?
No. The ZIP is looked up in a file on your device and is not sent anywhere. There are no lead forms.