Vermont · NOAA station KBTV
Heating with a mini-split in Burlington, VT
The short answer
In Burlington, a median ENERGY STAR cold-climate mini-split heating a 24,000 BTU/h design load should cost about $1,664 a year: $570 more than natural gas (90% efficient), and 60% less than electric resistance. The 99% design temperature is 0°F, so capacity at 5°F matters here.
The winter you are actually buying for
This is Burlington's average year of hourly temperatures from 2015 through 2024 (87,586 readings at Burlington International Airport, 99.9% of all hours). The dashed line is the 99% design temperature: only 1% of hours are colder.
What it costs, by fuel
Mini-split modeled as a median certified cold-climate unit sized to cover the load at 0°F. Seasonal efficiency in Burlington's weather: COP 2.50. In 89 hours a year the load exceeds capacity and the estimate adds electric backup.
Three house sizes
| Design load | Heat pump | Gas | Oil | Propane | Resistance | Seasonal COP | Systems that cover it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12,000 BTU/h | $832 | $547 | $874 | $1,087 | $2,077 | 2.50 | 10,896 of 14,941 |
| 24,000 BTU/h | $1,664 | $1,094 | $1,748 | $2,174 | $4,154 | 2.50 | 5,075 of 14,941 |
| 36,000 BTU/h | $2,496 | $1,642 | $2,622 | $3,262 | $6,231 | 2.50 | 2,345 of 14,941 |
The last column counts ENERGY STAR cold-climate systems whose published 5°F and 47°F capacities, joined by a straight line, still reach the design load at Burlington's 0°F. How sizing works.
Not a quote. Real bills depend on insulation, thermostat habits, installation and your own Manual J. Use this to decide whether a heat pump is worth pricing, then get two local quotes.
Questions people ask
Will a mini-split work in Burlington in winter?
Yes, if it is a cold-climate model. Burlington's 99% design temperature from 2015–2024 hourly data is 0°F, and the lowest hour recorded was -19°F. The median ENERGY STAR cold-climate unit keeps 88% of its 47°F heating capacity at 5°F. Hours per year at or below 5°F in Burlington: 146.
Is a heat pump cheaper than natural gas in Burlington?
At a 24,000 BTU/h design load, we estimate $1,664 a year with a median cold-climate mini-split versus $1,094 for natural gas at 90% efficiency, using 23.90¢/kWh electricity and 2024 Vermont fuel prices. That is $570 more than natural gas.
How big a mini-split do I need in Burlington?
Size to your home's heat loss at 0°F, not to square feet. For a 24,000 BTU/h load, a unit shaped like the median certified system needs about 27,605 BTU/h of 47°F capacity. 5,075 of the 14,941 certified systems cover that load at 0°F.