Minnesota · NOAA station KMSP
Heating with a mini-split in Minneapolis, MN
The short answer
In Minneapolis, a median ENERGY STAR cold-climate mini-split heating a 24,000 BTU/h design load should cost about $1,224 a year: $535 more than natural gas (90% efficient), and 59% less than electric resistance. The 99% design temperature is -6°F, so capacity at 5°F matters here.
The winter you are actually buying for
This is Minneapolis's average year of hourly temperatures from 2015 through 2024 (76,701 readings at Minneapolis-St Paul International Ap, 87.5% of all hours). The dashed line is the 99% design temperature: only 1% of hours are colder.
What it costs, by fuel
Mini-split modeled as a median certified cold-climate unit sized to cover the load at -6°F. Seasonal efficiency in Minneapolis's weather: COP 2.41. In 110 hours a year the load exceeds capacity and the estimate adds electric backup.
Three house sizes
| Design load | Heat pump | Gas | Oil | Propane | Resistance | Seasonal COP | Systems that cover it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12,000 BTU/h | $612 | $344 | $896 | $684 | $1,475 | 2.41 | 10,393 of 14,941 |
| 24,000 BTU/h | $1,224 | $689 | $1,793 | $1,368 | $2,949 | 2.41 | 4,628 of 14,941 |
| 36,000 BTU/h | $1,836 | $1,033 | $2,689 | $2,051 | $4,424 | 2.41 | 2,105 of 14,941 |
The last column counts ENERGY STAR cold-climate systems whose published 5°F and 47°F capacities, joined by a straight line, still reach the design load at Minneapolis's -6°F. How sizing works.
Not a quote. Real bills depend on insulation, thermostat habits, installation and your own Manual J. Use this to decide whether a heat pump is worth pricing, then get two local quotes.
Questions people ask
Will a mini-split work in Minneapolis in winter?
Yes, if it is a cold-climate model. Minneapolis's 99% design temperature from 2015–2024 hourly data is -6°F, and the lowest hour recorded was -28°F. The median ENERGY STAR cold-climate unit keeps 88% of its 47°F heating capacity at 5°F. Hours per year at or below 5°F in Minneapolis: 358.
Is a heat pump cheaper than natural gas in Minneapolis?
At a 24,000 BTU/h design load, we estimate $1,224 a year with a median cold-climate mini-split versus $689 for natural gas at 90% efficiency, using 16.28¢/kWh electricity and 2024 Minnesota fuel prices. That is $535 more than natural gas.
How big a mini-split do I need in Minneapolis?
Size to your home's heat loss at -6°F, not to square feet. For a 24,000 BTU/h load, a unit shaped like the median certified system needs about 28,145 BTU/h of 47°F capacity. 4,628 of the 14,941 certified systems cover that load at -6°F.