New York · NOAA station KLGA
Heating with a mini-split in New York, NY
The short answer
In New York, a median ENERGY STAR cold-climate mini-split heating a 24,000 BTU/h design load should cost about $1,665 a year: $713 more than natural gas (90% efficient), and 63% less than electric resistance. The 99% design temperature is 19°F, so capacity at 5°F rarely decides anything here.
The winter you are actually buying for
This is New York's average year of hourly temperatures from 2015 through 2024 (87,645 readings at La Guardia Airport, 100% of all hours). The dashed line is the 99% design temperature: only 1% of hours are colder.
What it costs, by fuel
Mini-split modeled as a median certified cold-climate unit sized to cover the load at 19°F. Seasonal efficiency in New York's weather: COP 2.69. In 110 hours a year the load exceeds capacity and the estimate adds electric backup.
Three house sizes
| Design load | Heat pump | Gas | Oil | Propane | Resistance | Seasonal COP | Systems that cover it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12,000 BTU/h | $832 | $476 | $686 | $1,020 | $2,241 | 2.69 | 11,012 of 14,941 |
| 24,000 BTU/h | $1,665 | $952 | $1,373 | $2,040 | $4,481 | 2.69 | 5,600 of 14,941 |
| 36,000 BTU/h | $2,497 | $1,428 | $2,059 | $3,061 | $6,722 | 2.69 | 2,869 of 14,941 |
The last column counts ENERGY STAR cold-climate systems whose published 5°F and 47°F capacities, joined by a straight line, still reach the design load at New York's 19°F. How sizing works.
Not a quote. Real bills depend on insulation, thermostat habits, installation and your own Manual J. Use this to decide whether a heat pump is worth pricing, then get two local quotes.
Questions people ask
Will a mini-split work in New York in winter?
Yes, if it is a cold-climate model. New York's 99% design temperature from 2015–2024 hourly data is 19°F, and the lowest hour recorded was 1°F. The median ENERGY STAR cold-climate unit keeps 88% of its 47°F heating capacity at 5°F. Hours per year at or below 5°F in New York: 1.
Is a heat pump cheaper than natural gas in New York?
At a 24,000 BTU/h design load, we estimate $1,665 a year with a median cold-climate mini-split versus $952 for natural gas at 90% efficiency, using 28.60¢/kWh electricity and 2024 New York fuel prices. That is $713 more than natural gas.
How big a mini-split do I need in New York?
Size to your home's heat loss at 19°F, not to square feet. For a 24,000 BTU/h load, a unit shaped like the median certified system needs about 26,025 BTU/h of 47°F capacity. 5,600 of the 14,941 certified systems cover that load at 19°F.